Published on
March 29, 2024Effective for
March 29, 2024 to April 1, 2024Short and medium-term outlook
A soggy Good Friday and Snowy Saturday
A deep and moisture laden southerly flow will continue to advect rain across the Chic-Chocs over the next 24 hours. A storm embedded in the strong south flow will increase both rainfall rates and easterly winds Friday afternoon as it crosses the Baie of Fundy en route to Gaspé. Given its source region off the Floridian coast, the storm is loaded with both heat and moisture. Freezing levels will reach 2800 metres by Friday evening and 30-40 mm of rain is expected across the region by Saturday morning. Alpine temperatures near +2C, moderate easterly winds, and heavy rain will act in concerto reduce the snowpack considerably. As the storm clips the eastern tip of Gaspe and moves towards Anticosti, winds will to the northwest early Saturday morning which will drag freezing levels back down to sea level and switch the rain over to snow. Snow will continue through day Saturday and ease by the evening. The moderate (40-60 km/h) NW winds will interact with topography to increase snowfall rates with 5-10 cm expected by Saturday night. Western sections of the forecast area including Mont Logan will cool first such that a larger proportion of the precipitation will fall as snow. Western zones as well as coastal zones could see as much as 15-25 cm.
Come Sunday morning, the storm will be into far northern Quebec, making way for high pressure to build over the Great Lakes. Mainly cloudy skies along with moderate NW winds will persist into Monday and be accompanied by more seasonal temperatures, highs near zero and lows near -6C. Following the very active weather pattern of recent days, a much quieter pattern emerges and persists through mid-week with the next storm forecast for next Thursday. For now, models are suggesting an early April snowstorm but there’s plenty of time for them to change their minds. Stay tuned with the next forecast scheduled for Monday morning.
Forecast Confidence :
Fairly good confidence overall. Given the strong south flow, there’s unfortunately no escaping the warmth and rain. The main uncertainty surrounds timing the switch over from rain to snow Friday night. An earlier transition will result in more snow. Some models indicate as much as 30 cms along the coast west of Saint-Anne but that seems overdone.