Alpine weather forecast

A little snow and cool temperatures

A weak trough associated with the low-pressure system over central Quebec, extending southward across the province, will move through the Gaspé Peninsula on Friday. Light snow will begin overnight and will be accompanied by light southerly winds in the morning before the trough passes through. Then the wind will shift to the west at 20 to 40 km/h with a continued high probability of snow showers. This should result in an accumulation of 3 to 5 cm. The daytime high in the mountains will reach near -5°C.

Another Alberta Clipper-type low-pressure system will arrive quickly on Friday evening over Maine, passing through the Great Lakes. This system will pass south of the region but will still bring some snow to the Chic-Chocs starting Friday evening. By Saturday morning, this low-pressure system will already be over the Maritimes, and northwesterly winds will pick up in the morning, reaching 20 to 50 km/h. This will keep snow showers going for much of the day. All of this will add another 2 to 4 cm of snow, continuing to cover last week’s refrozen crust. Temperatures will remain quite wintry, around -7°C during the day.

On Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will build over eastern Quebec and the Maritimes. It will be the best day of the weekend, with light winds in the morning and plenty of sunshine. The early morning temperature will be quite cold at around -16°C, but it will be pleasant to go outside and enjoy the last of winter, with a high of -8°C.

Monday will begin under the influence of the ridge, but a developing low-pressure system off the East Coast of New England will bring high clouds from the south. For now, numerical models show a path well south of our region. Therefore, no snow is expected in the Gaspé Peninsula unless a more northerly track materializes. As the low-pressure system intensifies, the light wind at dawn will become moderate from the northeast during the day, meaning wintery conditions will persist with a high of near -8°C.

The good news with a spring that is starting below seasonal values is that no warming is in sight in the medium term.

Forecast Confidence :

Confidence is moderate to good for the sequence of systems expected over the weekend. For the system developing along the East Coast on Monday, confidence is moderate. Although the Canadian GDPS model we’ve been tracking for this forecast places the system in a central position relative to other models, some models indicate a more northerly track. This scenario could bring some snow to our region.