Alpine weather forecast

Cold incoming

Meteorologically speaking, the pattern is quite interesting. In terms of big snowfall potentials, not so much. The configuration over the Chic-Chocs is what meteorologists refer to as a col or a saddle point. Defined by the superposition of two lows opposed by two highs, configured in a plus or a X, with the resulting pressure field resembling a saddle. The accompanying weather is somewhat uneventful as neither system is dominant and winds are light. Monday will therefore be mainly cloudy with light westerly winds and temperatures near -8C. Fortunately, cols are not blocking patterns and the low to our west will approach Monday night generating light snow that will persist through most of Tuesday. A couple centimetres will fall Monday night with a few more on Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the Chic-Chocs. As its name would suggest, the cold front will cause temperatures to fall close to -25C by Tuesday night and will be accompanied by strong, gusty, westerly winds of 50-80 km/h.

Wednesday will be a sunny but very cold day with alpine temperatures hovering near -23C. The strong westerly winds of 50-80 km/h will continue resulting in wind chill values approaching -40. Its worth reminding folks that frostbite occurs within minutes at these values.

Fortunately, the cold snap will be short lived. A Colorado low will track into western Quebec Thursday morning. The accompanying southerly flow will help temperatures climb closer to seasonal norms with a high near -11C. An accompanying warm front will generate cloudy skies with another round of light snow and moderate southwest winds. Currently, models are fairly conservative with snowfall amounts at 2-3 cm which makes senses as southerly flow are not commonly great snowfall patterns for the Chic-Chocs. We will likely see more snow on Friday once the system’s cold front sweeps through with the potential for 5-10 cm. Given that is still five days out, be sure to follow forecasts through the week as our next forecast will be issued Friday morning.

Forecast Confidence :

Fairly good confidence. The next few pulses of snow should be fairly light. One factor to consider will be strong westerly winds and cold air Tuesday night. If the winds are to shift a little more northwesterly, they could generate snowsqualls along the coast. Otherwise, the greatest potential for snow arrives Friday.