Alpine weather forecast

Giddy up!!

Wednesday will be the proverbial quiet before a snow storm arrives on Thursday. A fading ridge of high pressure over the Maritimes will provide for a mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, and alpine temperatures near -10C. Cloud cover will increase in the evening and winds will pick up from the southeast at 30 gusting 50 km/h as a storm approaches from the Great Lakes. Snow with the system is forecast to begin around midnight Thursday.

Models are in fairly good agreement with regards to the storm’s trajectory, tracking from the Eastern Townships across northern New Brunswick on Thursday morning to reach Anticosti Island by the afternoon. This evolution will place the Chic-Chocs in the ideal, cold and snowy northern sector of the storm. Furthermore, the warm air and mixed precipitation will remain well to the south near Fredericton. Most of the snow will fall through the morning before easing to flurries in the afternoon. Total amounts are expected in the 12-18 cm range along with strong northeast winds of 50-70 km/h. With temperatures near -8C, the snow will be light density and easily blown around by strong winds thereby reducing visibilities both in the alpine and along the coast. Winds wil turn to the northwest and ease Thursday afternoon.

The storm will slide along the Basse-Côte-Nord on Friday helping to sustain a cold northwesterly flow across the Saint-Lawrence. With limited sea ice, there will be plenty of moisture available to generate additional light flurries on Friday with 2-4 cm of additional snow possible. Temperatures will remain relatively steady near -5C with NW winds of 10 gusting 20 km/h. Flurries should ease come Saturday but skies will remain cloudy and NW winds will pick up to 30 gusting 45 km/h. Snow transport will therefore continue towards south aspects into the weekend.

Forecast Confidence :

Relatively good confidence overall. Environment Canada’s high-resolution model (HRDPS) is more generous than others and suggest upwards of 25-30 cm along the coast. Given the strong NE winds, these amounts could very well materialize along the 132 and northern sections of the 299. Good confidence that temperatures will remain seasonal or slightly below throughout the period.